Figure 11: Maryland’s forestry and land use sector GHG emissions and sinks, historical and projected, from 2006 to 2050 based on current policies and future potential
The forestry and land use sector includes a combination of GHG emissions sources and sinks, which makes it unique from other sectors. GHG emissions in this sector include methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from wildfires and prescribed forest burns, N2O from the application of synthetic fertilizers to settlement soils, and CH4 from reservoirs and coastal wetlands. Net emissions sinks (carbon sequestration pathways) in this sector include the carbon flux in forested and treed landscapes; carbon stored in harvested wood products, wood in landfills, and landfilled yard trimmings and food scraps; carbon flux in agricultural soils; and carbon flux in coastal (tidal) wetlands and submerged aquatic vegetation. This sector is not included in Maryland’s gross emissions accounting and is instead factored into Maryland’s net emissions calculation for 2045.
In 2020, the forestry and land use sector counteracted 9% of Maryland’s gross GHG emissions by removing 8.34 MMTCO2e from the atmosphere. While this number is variable year to year, due to differences in rates of forest growth largely influenced by weather and natural or human-induced disturbance, this value is very similar to the long-term trend. The carbon sequestration potential of the agricultural sector can be maximized through the expansion of MDA’s resource conservation programs, which increase the rate of best management practice adoption across Maryland’s croplands. Further GHG emissions reductions in this sector can be achieved through the expansion of forestry programs involving forest conservation, improved forest management, and reforestation facilitated by DNR and other agency partners.
To achieve Maryland’s 2045 net-zero emissions goal, carbon sequestration must be increased to offset specific sectors that are difficult to decarbonize. This will be a challenge, given recent trends in land-use change and population growth, aging forests that tend to sequester less carbon annually, and climate change impacts like sea level rise and more frequent and intense storms. Ongoing and increased investment in natural climate solutions today will help the state maximize its carbon sink by 2045.
Maryland 5 Million Trees Initiative (current)
The Tree Solutions Now Act of 2021 (TSNA) includes a historic directive to plant and maintain 5 million native trees on public and private land by 2031 (also known as the Maryland 5 Million Trees Initiative (5MT)). To advance equity and environmental justice, 5MT directs that at least 10% (500,000) of these trees be planted in underserved urban areas, improving air and water quality and reducing urban heat island effects. Foundational to this Initiative is support for long-term maintenance and management to ensure trees and forests are healthy and resilient for decades to come.
MDE coordinates the tracking and implementation of the Initiative in partnership with DNR, MDA, MDOT, and the Chesapeake Bay Trust. Eligible plantings are tracked across all state-funded programs and through the participation of many private planting partners. All carbon outcomes related to 5MT are quantified and integrated within the state’s GHG inventory using advanced science capabilities supported by the University of Maryland.
Sustainable Growth (current)
MDP is the lead agency for reducing emissions through sustainable growth and land use/location efficiency, which involves the private sector and various agencies and commissions at all levels of government within Maryland. These efforts and programs are designed to minimize GHG emissions from future land development and foster transit use, walking and biking, and shorter travel distances for daily mobility needs. By managing growth, local communities can minimize sprawl development and contribute to a reduction in Maryland’s GHG emissions. Sustainable growth is characterized by compact land use, with neighborhood schools, compatible transit options, walkable streets, mixed-use development, and a wide range of housing choices. Sustainable growth concentrates on new development and redevelopment in areas with existing or planned infrastructure to avoid sprawl, which is generally characterized as the increased development of land in suburban and rural areas outside of their respective urban centers and planned growth areas. This increased development on the outskirts of towns, villages, and metropolitan areas is often accompanied by a lack of development, redevelopment, or reuse of land within the urban centers and designated growth areas themselves, and excessive automobile use results in a marked increase in GHG emissions. Conversion of forests and agricultural lands increases emissions due to land clearing at the time of construction and decreases or eliminates the capacity of that land to sequester carbon.
It should be noted that many local governments in Maryland are already implementing more sustainable land use and transportation policies and programs that are: promoting green building and compact, transit-oriented development; improving walkability; reducing aggregate VMT and auto dependency; preserving vegetated/forested lands, which sequester carbon; and protecting agriculture. In support of these programs, the Smart Growth Subcabinet, led by MDP, makes recommendations to the Governor regarding changes in state law, regulations, and procedures needed to create, enhance, support, and revitalize sustainable communities across Maryland; and facilitates interagency coordination to ensure successful statewide community reinvestment and compact development initiatives are integrated and balanced to achieve multiple benefits that advance equity, economic growth and environmental regeneration.
Forest Management (current)
Current state policy promotes sustainable forestry management practices on public and private Maryland forest lands. Enrolling unmanaged forests into forest management plans and implementing sustainable forest best management practices can enhance forest productivity, which increases rates of carbon sequestration in forest biomass and the amount of carbon stored in harvested durable wood products, and decreases the risk of forest pest or disease outbreaks. This can translate to economic benefits for the landowner and the forest products industry in Maryland, which had an annual economic impact of over $3.3 billion in 2019. Over 90% of state forests are dual certified for sustainable forest management and sustainable practices are regularly implemented on other state-owned lands like Wildlife Management Areas and State Parks. Only 40% of privately owned forests in Maryland are enrolled in forest management plans, with the remaining lands representing opportunities to engage these landowners in sustainable forest management.
Sustainable forest management (sometimes referred to as “climate smart forest management”) refers to a broad suite of practices that are meant to increase the health of the forest and meet the management objectives of the landowner. In some cases these practices have clear and measurable benefits in terms of increasing carbon sequestration in the forest (e.g. extended rotations and plantings to increase density), some practices are likely to increase carbon capture but are difficult to quantify (e.g. invasive species removal, deer browse control) and some do not increase carbon sequestration, but are likely to increase the resilience of the forest to climate impacts, or improve the quality of wildlife habitat (e.g. timber stand improvement, thinnings).
Coastal Wetland Management (current)
Blue carbon in Maryland refers to the carbon captured by the ocean and coastal ecosystems, including coastal salt marshes and seagrasses. For the Maryland GHG inventory, blue carbon stocks and fluxes comprise the state’s estuarine wetlands and seagrasses, otherwise referred to as submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Ongoing restoration of SAV in the Chesapeake Bay is primarily advanced through the shared goals of the Chesapeake Bay Program.
Restoration of coastal wetlands has not been widely implemented in Maryland, apart from island restoration projects where dredge material is used to build up islands that are partially composed of wetlands. While coastal wetlands are vital ecosystems that provide important ecosystem services like erosion prevention and wildlife habitat, restoration of these systems is quite expensive, frequently exceeding $50,000 per acre restored. DNR has partnered with The Nature Conservancy and ESA, Inc. to conduct a blue carbon feasibility study of several existing or potential wetland restoration projects in Maryland. The study is ongoing but preliminary results indicate that the sale of blue carbon credits would not be able to support the costs associated with project implementation, even if the price of carbon were to rise dramatically. Under certain price points, the sale of credits can fund a portion of the cost of maintaining the project. Given project costs, it is likely that projects will be done for reasons other than blue carbon, like enhancing coastal resiliency or ensuring habitat for endangered species, but blue carbon will remain an important co-benefit of this work.
Agricultural Resource Conservation Programs (current)
Maryland farmers have led the nation in their adoption of soil conservation practices. Building on existing Departmental programs, the 2017 Healthy Soils Act charged MDA with the development of a Healthy Soils Program to improve the health, yield, and profitability of Maryland’s soils and promote the further adoption of conservation practices that foster soil health while increasing carbon sequestration capacity. In 2022, MDA rolled out the
Cover Crop Plus program, to leverage the success of cover cropping in the state and encourage earlier planting, later termination, and multi-year planning for soil health. A second program, the Healthy Soils Competitive Fund, was launched in 2023 to encourage innovative soil health management. This new Fund encourages continued learning in the farming community as Maryland agencies work to bolster agriculture’s role as a climate solution. Both new programs capitalize on co-benefits for air and water quality, and carbon sequestration that build upon Maryland’s nationally recognized progressive farming practices and programs.
Forest Preservation and Retention Act (current)
In 2023, the state’s Forest Conservation Act of 2013 was updated to include a new
statewide goal to achieve net forest and tree canopy gain and requires each county to achieve no net forest loss,
as measured every four years. One mechanism to achieve this policy is stronger tree loss mitigation requirements for developers to ensure adequate replacement of forested land cleared for new construction. This law also includes increased reviews of local forest conservation plans by DNR to ensure
these plans align with state forest protection goals. This policy, coupled with the state’s afforestation and forest management programs, is critical for maintaining a healthy forest carbon sink through 2045.
State Incentives for Forestry and Land Use (current, modified)
The state has made significant investments in forest conservation and reforestation. With new funding in place, the state will provide additional support for activities that promote enhanced carbon sequestration in Maryland’s forestry and land use sector. Priority investments include tree plantings and forest management. Young trees take several years to establish before they begin sequestering significant amounts of carbon, so it is important to support tree planting now to offset Maryland’s aging forests and maximize the carbon contribution of the forest carbon sink in 2045 when the state is due to achieve net-zero emissions.
Impact of Forestry and Land Use Sector Policies
Building on the policies listed above, the forestry and land use sector collectively has the potential to offset statewide GHG emissions by 238 to 263 MMTCO2e between now and 2050. Figure 11 illustrates the change in GHG removals from this sector based on historical and modeled trends.
Expanding statewide adoption of agricultural conservation practices and scaling forest conservation and restoration beyond current levels offers an opportunity to increase carbon removal from the atmosphere. Ongoing implementation of current forest policies and programs is expected to remove 7.6 MMTCO2e annually by 2045. However, expanding implementation across 400,000 acres of feasible plantable area could increase the carbon sequestration benefit to an annual removal of 9.1 MMTCO2e. Current levels of adoption in agricultural best management practices, including commitments under the state’s Phase III Watershed Implementation Plan, are already expected to remove 0.7 MMTCO2e annually by 2045. Scaling the adoption of practices to 80% of cropland statewide could increase the annual removal to 0.9 MMTCO2e.
